| |Thinking about the analysis of systematic global macro and managed futures managers, I asked a simple question, is there a difference between a quant and system developer. A portfolio system is a complete integrated approach for making market predictions and investment decisions including sizing, entry, exit, and risk management. Is it possible for a manager to be less well-trained as many newly minted engineering quants, but still be talented at building portfolio systems? … Read more Quant and System Developers – There is a Distinction
| |“Take nothing on its looks; take everything on evidence. There’s no better rule.” — Mr. Jaggers, Pip’s guardian in Great Expectations by Charles Dickens. If we had Mr. Jaggers as our guardian and mentor, we would likely be better analysts. A recurring theme this month has been about finding the truth through a focus on data, not commentary. Look to the data and not what is being said. If there is no supporting evidence, discount. If no supporting evidence is provided, then find your own. Markets may be driven by sentiment or perception but ultimately it will discount and respond the evidence … Read more The Advice of Mr. Jaggers, “Follow the Evidence.”
| |Economic and financial globalization is not just about trade. It is about trade only to the extent that trade includes goods, services, capital, labor, information, and culture. Globalization concerns the positioning of the firm and the individual in the world and not just the positioning within the nation state or local economy. While globalization affects everyone, the focus is greater for the person who is more in touch with London than Cleveland, Paris over San Antonio, and Beijing over Jacksonville. … Read more Globalization, Global History, and Macro Investing
| |Big historical events, especially tragedies, are committed to memory so we will not forget, yet is it really good to remember everything? Put differently, is forgetfulness useful? Would we be better off if some memories disappeared? … Read more Forgetfulness and Financial Analysis – Is More Memory Always Better?
| |If I were being polite, I would not argue that we are in an age of lies by politicians, businessmen, or leaders, but what The Economist has called a “post-truth world”. Stephen Colbert described the current environment as one of different levels of “truthiness”. At best, clarity by leaders and spokespeople is in short supply. Most commentary is done for spin … Read more Financial Analysis and “Truthiness” – Follow Data, Not the Talk
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