• January Flash Report

    | | Flash Report

    January saw a rather difficult transfer of power with the incredibly sad rioting of the U.S. Capital. No matter what side of the aisle on which you lean this act was about as un patriotic as it gets. With Biden now confirmed and control fully in the hands of democrats we can now focus our attention on policy from the new administration.  Reversals of Trump policy have already begun with the United States re-joining the Paris Climate Agreement. Much more should be expected as the US and the World appears to be looking toward the pre-COVID way of life.  Much … Read more January Flash Report
  • Commodities: A Range of Opportunities for 2021 – Market Outlook

    | | Commodities

    “With a new secular bull trend, Commodities are among the most attractive markets this year. This commodity environment could be an exceptional moment to be in a spread program.” The economic pendulum tends to be swinging towards commodities. The notion that low commodity prices are their own cure may be playing out in 2021[1], with help from its relationship to the post-pandemic economy and mean-reversion risks of a high dollar and U.S. stock market. Also, improving demand and central banks worldwide seeking expansionary policies are giving commodities a boost. After years of a bear market, Commodities seem to be undervalued … Read more Commodities: A Range of Opportunities for 2021 – Market Outlook
  • Market Sentiment. I feel that you should pay attention.

    | | behavioral finance

    Market sentiment is a broad term that encompasses the prevailing feeling that investors have about a market.  Measuring this “feeling” can be accomplished in a variety of ways. CNNMoney has a Fear and Greed Index that displays this in a simple format showing when investors are most willing to take on risk or hunker down. Modern takes for this type of strategy will take keyword data from financial press articles, interviews, or Twitter trends to make investment decisions as well. Some of these firms use Artificial Intelligence (AI) to parse this in real time to place trades across all markets.  … Read more Market Sentiment. I feel that you should pay attention.
  • December Flash Report

    | | Flash Report

    December finally ends a year we are all looking to put behind us. Every facet of our lives was touched by the Pandemic and we are still learning to cope with affects of the virus. Along with Covid we faced, political turmoil in the U.S. with President elect Biden taking office in 2021 and Democrats having full control, Brexit finally materialized in the U.K., China following through with their trade agreement purchasing obligations we find ourselves entering 2021 with change across multiple fronts. It will be interesting to see how markets react in 2021 to what we left in 2020 … Read more December Flash Report
  • Investment Portfolio Design for an Unpredictable World

    | | Portfolio Management

    Investors are always faced with choices.  My experience tells me that these choices are often driven by simple quirks of human behavior.  Two of these that seem to be big drivers seem to be recency bias and a desire for simplification.  Both of these naturally make us poor investors. For example, in March of 2020 in the throes of the COVID-19 pandemic we spoke with a number of investors who were thinking of just taking their whole equity portfolio flat.  Today as we approach another all-time high that clearly would have been a bad time to sell.  That same period, … Read more Investment Portfolio Design for an Unpredictable World