• June Flash Report

    | | Flash Report

    Are we still in a classic bear market rally? Or is this simply a continuation of the bull market? These are questions that no one can really answer as we are starting to see modest recovery in unemployment and parts of the economy coming back to life. The narrative has not changed much from the previous month as we see slight gains across most sectors in our CTA Indexes. This month the Agriculture index +1.65 and Stock Index focused managers +1.60 leading the way. Volatility remains in equities which gave way to shorter term traders specializing in indicies. Trend focused … Read more June Flash Report
  • May Flash Report

    | | Flash Report

    The major theme appears to be volatility remaining steady in May with a VIX hovering in the mid 20’s. U.S. equity indexes continue moving closer to a full recovery from March lows in spite of unemployment reaching numbers never seen before. Perhaps markets have factored in Q2 COVID-19 effects along with extreme government stimulus. We should look toward economic indicators in Q3 and Q4 to realize more of the impact COVID will have globally. Most stood ready for this to be the recession (perhaps a depression) with long lasting effects. With everyday activity starting to take more of a return … Read more May Flash Report
  • April Flash Report

    | | Flash Report

    Mostly a subdued month despite continued volatility across almost all asset classes. As we await the outcome of the pandemic and us getting back to some sort of new semblance of normal we can almost assuredly expect volatility to remain. With this much Federal Reserve intervention in the markets we are really in unprecedented times. All the broader equity indexes rallied quite a bit in April despite record levels of unemployment and more people looking for work than ever before.  Perhaps the market thinks we will dig out of this and go back to pre crisis spending by Q4 of … Read more April Flash Report
  • Cayler Capital | April Performance Commentary

    | | Commodities, Commodity Trading Advisor, Decision-Making, Managed Futures, Performance

    After finishing off one of the wildest quarters of my trading career, April managed to take the cake.  For those that missed it (not sure how you possibly could have), oil settled negative $37.  The effects of this were immediate: risk barometers had to be recalculated, option models switched, and most importantly was the immediate shock felt as oil producers halted production.  This massive negative price sets the stage for a return to normalcy and bullishness in the energy space: storage has been filled, production has been cut and we are now forecasting stock draws throughout the second half of … Read more Cayler Capital | April Performance Commentary
  • Quantica Quarterly Insights – Why speed matters

    | | Quarterly Report

    The second half of Q1 2020 turned out to be one of the most volatile periods ever for financial markets. The intensity and speed of the equity market sell-off has been unprecedented and market volatility has reached higher levels than during the peak of the financial crisis in 2008. The design of systematic trend-following programs involves many different building blocks, such as signal generation models, the structure of the investment universe, risk allocation targets between different asset classes, risk management models and portfolio construction methodology … Read more Quantica Quarterly Insights – Why speed matters