Bulls Being Lured in With Dropping Rig Counts

| | Energy

Written by:  Bryen Deutsch

 

It appears CNBC is running out of credible analysts who are bullish the oil

complex. The calls for $65+ WTI seem rather sparse. In fact, is there anybody in

their right mind who still thinks crude oil is going higher? Of course. We all know

the Keynes’ saying “The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay

solvent.” But seriously, how much longer can the bulls continue this irrational

move on what appears to be a bearish fundamental backdrop?

 

The Baker Hughes Rig Count is really one of the few remaining bull arguments. As

of Friday June 5, the US oil rig count dropped for a 26th consecutive week or

essentially 6 straight months. US rig counts are at the lowest level since 2010.

After reaching a peak of 1,536 rigs, the count has dropped 58% to 642.

 

The current move higher also has been fueled since Friday’s OPEC decision when

a shakeout started of overzealous bears who were thinking they could outsmart

OPEC and everyone else. This move higher has all the makings of a short squeeze

of weak bears. With that being said, all indications are that the market is making

a run at $65 or at least the May 6 high of $63.62.

 

The recent rising price of crude oil will likely lure shale producers into turning the

spigots back on sooner rather than later. Eventually, there will be an increase

again in rig counts. At this point, the realization that the USD is at multi year

highs, US crude oil inventories are at an all-time high, Iranian oil will soon likely be

back in the world market, OPEC is maintaining production at 30 million bpd, and

tankers are hoarding oil in the GOM will kick in. So essentially, the first Friday at

1 EST when the Baker Hughes Rig is released and we see our first increase in rigs

in months, I will be short this market.

 

If you have questions regarding the energy markets, would like daily support and

resistance emailed to you, or would like to discuss an investment in the future

markets, feel free to call me directly at 570-657-0523 or send an email to

bdeutsch@iasg.com.  You can also reach us through our website at www.iasg.com

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