Author: IASG

  • Warrington August 2021 Market Update

    | | Markets

    Commentary provided by Mark Adams of Warrington Asset Management The S&P 500 Index (“S&P”) continued its relentless advance throughout August in the face of ongoing global crosscurrents.  The exponential spread of the Delta variant of Covid, the resurgence of Taliban control in Afghanistan, and the underreported troubles of China’s largest real estate developer (Evergrande), all provided a “wall of worry” for U.S. stock indices to climb.  As with all recent market-impacting events, the only material decline was a mid-month drop which was quickly bought, returning the S&P to new all-time highs.  While the index paints a picture that “all is well”, … Read more Warrington August 2021 Market Update
  • June 2021 Flash Report

    | | Flash Report

    Inflation remained the hot topic in June as overall CTA performance cooled for the month. Other market themes were driven by the FED and its decision to taper. Equity markets were for the most part calm in June with the VIX closing lower for the fourth straight month (see chart below).   The broader CTA space saw most longer term trends break in June predominantly in government bond futures and USD. The IASG Trend Index was -1.79% while the Agriculture Index +0.61% and Equity Index +0.86% led the way for June.    Call me a Pessimist All investors know the … Read more June 2021 Flash Report
  • May 2021 Flash Report

    | | Flash Report

    Equity market volatility surfaced again, led primarily by the tech sector with several themes continuing to work its way through this market. Is the market rally stalling out or getting set to move higher? Many of the trends observed over the last few months have continued throughout May with exposure to a variety of commodities (long) and currencies (long). The topic of inflation continues to persist as the Fed seems likely to hold rates until unemployment comes down to pre-pandemic levels while inflation will be allowed to exceed a rise above the 2% target. Inflation seems less of a concern … Read more May 2021 Flash Report
  • Q1 Agricultural Market Commentary

    | | Agriculture

    Guest post by Malinda Goldsmith of Four Seasons Commodities Agricultural markets have completed monstrous seven-year bear moves for good reason. Consider that we’ve had four years in a row of record or near-record crops, generally benign growing seasons in North America, ever-larger crops in South America, a strong dollar and a trade war which focused on agricultural products. End-users around the world became accustomed to buying “hand-to-mouth” for good reason – big crops, low prices – no need to go to the store and stock up in a world of surplus. Suddenly, the trade war was over and a black … Read more Q1 Agricultural Market Commentary
  • Why Traditional Hedges Suck!

    | | Strategy

    An article by Scot Billington, Covenant Capital Management Unfortunately, most traditional hedges suck. Buy and hold investing has been wildly successful since 1982; however, its adherents have had to endure two 50% drawdowns; a 25% down day; and a 14-year period of zero return.  Long term wealth is significantly impacted by drawdowns of more than 25%, because the necessary recovery rally follows an exponential curve. Let’s take a look at what’s needed for recovery:  A 30% decline requires a 43% rally to get back to even.  A 40% decline requires 67%; down 50% requires +100; and down 60% requires a … Read more Why Traditional Hedges Suck!