Author: IASG

  • May 2021 Flash Report

    | | Flash Report

    Equity market volatility surfaced again, led primarily by the tech sector with several themes continuing to work its way through this market. Is the market rally stalling out or getting set to move higher? Many of the trends observed over the last few months have continued throughout May with exposure to a variety of commodities (long) and currencies (long). The topic of inflation continues to persist as the Fed seems likely to hold rates until unemployment comes down to pre-pandemic levels while inflation will be allowed to exceed a rise above the 2% target. Inflation seems less of a concern … Read more May 2021 Flash Report
  • Q1 Agricultural Market Commentary

    | | Agriculture

    Guest post by Malinda Goldsmith of Four Seasons Commodities Agricultural markets have completed monstrous seven-year bear moves for good reason. Consider that we’ve had four years in a row of record or near-record crops, generally benign growing seasons in North America, ever-larger crops in South America, a strong dollar and a trade war which focused on agricultural products. End-users around the world became accustomed to buying “hand-to-mouth” for good reason – big crops, low prices – no need to go to the store and stock up in a world of surplus. Suddenly, the trade war was over and a black … Read more Q1 Agricultural Market Commentary
  • Why Traditional Hedges Suck!

    | | Strategy

    An article by Scot Billington, Covenant Capital Management Unfortunately, most traditional hedges suck. Buy and hold investing has been wildly successful since 1982; however, its adherents have had to endure two 50% drawdowns; a 25% down day; and a 14-year period of zero return.  Long term wealth is significantly impacted by drawdowns of more than 25%, because the necessary recovery rally follows an exponential curve. Let’s take a look at what’s needed for recovery:  A 30% decline requires a 43% rally to get back to even.  A 40% decline requires 67%; down 50% requires +100; and down 60% requires a … Read more Why Traditional Hedges Suck!
  • March 2021 Flash Report

    | | Flash Report, Futures

    March was another positive move for equity markets with indexes showing solid returns. CTAs held their own with overall a positive month across many of the strategies we track.  Some of the trends outside of equities saw choppiness in grain and agriculture markets and trends emerged in short bonds. The USD showed strength from its end of February low versus other major currencies. Equity markets remain at all time high levels as volatility in the indexes has dropped significantly below 20 for the first time in over a year. Most indexes were positive with the Stock Index Trader Index leading for … Read more March 2021 Flash Report
  • February Flash Report

    | | Flash Report

    Seems equities in February snapped back putting most indexes into positive territory on the year. Where are we at in this bull market? Are equities running out of steam? Will we topple then race back up to new highs again? What else can the FED do to support the economy? With all these questions looming, the most noticeable trend in futures is volatility as it has returned across a whole host of assets in financial and commodity futures. There is growing anticipation of inflation combined with the fuel of a commodity super cycle. It appears opportunities are abundant across all … Read more February Flash Report