Category: Agriculture

  • April 2021 Market Letter

    | | Agriculture

    Commentary provided by Chad Burlet of Third Street AG Investments April had the largest one month rally of corn futures ever. Considering the 162 year history of corn futures, that is no small milestone. May Corn futures rallied $1.75¾ (31.1%) this month. In the process the front month soybean/corn ratio moved from 2.55 to 2.12 and May Corn futures moved to 42 cents over May Kansas City Wheat futures. Corn was driven by the dual engines of Chinese imports and a Brazilian drought. Despite that record move, and a fifty cent rally in the May-July calendar spread, there was no evidence the … Read more April 2021 Market Letter
  • Q1 Agricultural Market Commentary

    | | Agriculture

    Guest post by Malinda Goldsmith of Four Seasons Commodities Agricultural markets have completed monstrous seven-year bear moves for good reason. Consider that we’ve had four years in a row of record or near-record crops, generally benign growing seasons in North America, ever-larger crops in South America, a strong dollar and a trade war which focused on agricultural products. End-users around the world became accustomed to buying “hand-to-mouth” for good reason – big crops, low prices – no need to go to the store and stock up in a world of surplus. Suddenly, the trade war was over and a black … Read more Q1 Agricultural Market Commentary
  • Incredible Velocity Movement Between KC Wheat and Chicago Corn

    | | Agriculture

    Commentary provided by Chad Burlet of Third Street AG Investments As always, the month of March and the first quarter ended with the USDA’s release of their March 1 stocks report and their spring planting intentions report. These reports often have the potential to dramatically disrupt conventional wisdom and today’s report did not disappoint. For the past several years the stocks numbers have provided the biggest surprise, but today it was the acreage estimates that rocked the market. Both corn and soybeans came in well below the average of the analysts’ estimates. An overwhelming majority expected the two major row crops to … Read more Incredible Velocity Movement Between KC Wheat and Chicago Corn
  • February 2021 Grain Market Commentary

    | | Agriculture

    Commentary provided by Chad Burlet of Third Street AG Investments With only one trading day left in February, it’s clear that the spring acreage fight has captured the market’s attention. While old crop corn and soybeans struggled near highs that were set weeks ago, November soybeans and December corn raced to new contract highs yesterday. Through today’s close December corn has gained 21 cents on March corn and November soybeans have gained 52 cents on March soybeans.  On February 18-19 the USDA held its annual Agricultural Outlook Forum. This event always provides the USDA’s first look at the supply and demand … Read more February 2021 Grain Market Commentary
  • JTM Capital Management – Major Factors Affecting Agriculture

    | | Agriculture

    Following up on last month’s commentary, July featured lower than average rainfall and higher than average temperatures across most of the US’s primary growing regions. Interestingly enough these results were quite different than the NOAA long-range forecasts issued for the month. Specifically, most of the Corn Belt experienced maximum temperatures that averaged 2-4 degrees (F) above normal. As you can see on the left even with this year’s extremely wet spring, drought conditions are expected to develop in key growing regions of IA, IL, and IN. This is definitely something to keep an eye on as near perfect conditions will be needed to substantially increase row crop yields at this point … Read more JTM Capital Management – Major Factors Affecting Agriculture