Category: Commodities
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Cayler Capital | April Performance Commentary
| | Commodities, Commodity Trading Advisor, Decision-Making, Managed Futures, Performance
After finishing off one of the wildest quarters of my trading career, April managed to take the cake. For those that missed it (not sure how you possibly could have), oil settled negative $37. The effects of this were immediate: risk barometers had to be recalculated, option models switched, and most importantly was the immediate shock felt as oil producers halted production. This massive negative price sets the stage for a return to normalcy and bullishness in the energy space: storage has been filled, production has been cut and we are now forecasting stock draws throughout the second half of … Read more Cayler Capital | April Performance Commentary -
Oil Flood – Case for $15 Oil
| | Commodities, Crude Oil
Guest post by Brent Belote of Cayler Capital Russia broke the oil market! Russia and the Saudis have entered into a dangerous game of chicken with each other. Russia is determined to punish US Oil Producers while the Saudis are attempting to force OPEC+ back in line. To simplify, Russia would not comply with OPEC+ to extend cuts and possibly deepen them, so in retaliation, the Saudis lowered its official selling price (OSP). This OSP affects about 14 million barrels per day (mb/d) for various oil grades and locations. See below chart for an idea of just how monumental and … Read more Oil Flood – Case for $15 Oil -
Gold – Not Be A Strong Link To Inflation Nor A Strong Relationship With Real Rates
| | Commodities
We have written about the surprising lack of gold price gains with the surge in inflation. A reader has commented that it is the real rate of interest that is important, not inflation. Unfortunately, the data does not seem to show a close relationship … Read more Gold – Not Be A Strong Link To Inflation Nor A Strong Relationship With Real Rates -
The Most Diverse Asset Class – The Uniqueness of Commodities
| | Commodities
Each asset class is special but have some defining characteristics that make them an asset class. Each also has dispersion in returns within the members in the classification. Commodities are an asset class with a very diverse collection of members which may give very conflicting macro/micro signals. … Read more The Most Diverse Asset Class – The Uniqueness of Commodities -
Gold – The Asset We Often Use To Project Fear and Optimism
| | Commodities
Gold is hard to understand as an investment. Sometimes it behaves like an inflation hedge but at other times it does not. Sometimes it responds to the real cost of funds, and sometime it does not. It can serve as a safe asset, yet it has sold-off in a crisis. It can be the uncorrelated asset of frustration, but a longer examination tells us about investment deep investor expectations. Gold, over the last decade, can be viewed through three major themes … Read more Gold – The Asset We Often Use To Project Fear and Optimism