Category: Commodity Trading Advisor

  • Coloma Capital – Trade War Tempest or Just a Squall?

    | | Commodity Trading Advisor, Fundamental, Futures

    Trade War Tempest or Just a Squall?  As the July 31st Fed interest rate cut was quickly overrun by the trade war tit-for-tat, we need to gain some perspective on expected impact of the US/China interaction in early August without the hype too often seen in the media.  On August 1st, Trump stated that he intends to place a 10% tariff on the remaining $300 billion-ish in Chinese exports to the US as of September 1st.  The prior statements were a 25% tariff (notably higher) and at an indeterminate date (easily ignored by the markets).  A lower tariff that can possibly be fully absorbed by Chinese firms may ruffle some feathers but would not be a crisis.  The Chinese response of cancelling nebulously-defined agricultural sales (note that pork shipments are full speed ahead, despite the existing Chinese tariff) would be partially matched off with lower US grain production from the poor spring weather.  There are also some reports that the Chinese tempered their Brazilian soy purchases which implied intrinsically lower Chinese grain demand.  In other words, this first response was justification for something they wanted to do anyway.  … Read more Coloma Capital – Trade War Tempest or Just a Squall?
  • Managing Money: It’s basically all noise, with a few exceptions

    | | Commodity Trading Advisor, Fed, Trump

    Noise and an overwhelming amount of data is the biggest challenge in managing money in 2019 (or anytime in the past decade). In the 1960s, 1970s, and even the 1980s, delivering alpha came down to having access to information others didn’t have – the process of obtaining data was a value-add. Today, we have the complete opposite problem. In 2019 we have too much information, and delivering alpha comes down to paring things back to their essence, stripping away unnecessary garbage … Read more Managing Money: It’s basically all noise, with a few exceptions
  • AG Capital – Behind the scenes of a Global Macro Manager

    | | Commodity Trading Advisor, Fundamental, Global Macro

    AG Capital is a global macro investment firm, trading futures across currencies, commodities, equity indices, and interest rates. The firm follows a 100% discretionary approach, relying on fundamental analysis to choose long and short themes, with technical analysis informing timing of entries and exits.  Below is a sample piece showing how they see trading.  This example sets up a trade viewed through the lens of a global macro firm … Read more AG Capital – Behind the scenes of a Global Macro Manager
  • The Case for Proprietary Trading Style CTAs

    | | Commodity Trading Advisor

    The CTA space has struggled mightily over the past 10 years.  We believe a CTA manager with a proprietary trading skill set, proven over time throughout various market regimes, is the necessary future of the industry.  Trading proprietary firm capital under an SMA structure can have multiple benefits.  This way, firms do not have the overhead and headache of bringing on a new trading team.  Both parties are free to focus on what they do best; trading and managing risk.  … Read more The Case for Proprietary Trading Style CTAs
  • Bull Market with Higher Risk – Looking into 2018

    | | Buckingham, bull market, Commodity Trading Advisor

    2017 will go down as one of the most remarkable years for the US Stock market on record. The Dow Jones closed with 71 record highs which is a record in itself. The Dow posted a record high almost every three days. The S&P 500 posted gains of 19.4% with near-record low volatility while enduring geopolitical tensions, massive natural disasters, political turmoil in Washington and a tightening of monetary policy. In fact, the market currently has the calmest price fluctuation in 50 years, with the S&P 500’s average (daily up-or-down moves) a mere 0.30%. As a comparison, this is over half the move last year and almost a sixth (1/6) of the average daily move in 2008. It’s the smallest absolute daily move average since 1965; we had to trace back to 1964 when S&P 500 average daily move went below 0.3%. (Figure 1). … Read more Bull Market with Higher Risk – Looking into 2018