Category: Commodity Trading Advisor

  • Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs) in Perspective

    | | Commodity Trading Advisor

    Spring Valley
    The following is a guest post from Spring Valley Asset Management: Disclaimer: While an investment in managed futures can help enhance returns and reduce risk, it can also do just the opposite and in fact result in further losses in a portfolio. In addition, studies conducted of managed futures as a whole may not be indicative of the performance of any individual CTA. The results of studies conducted in the past may not be indicative of current time periods.   Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs) are a class of hedge funds that trade primarily in liquid global futures markets. These include currencies, … Read more Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs) in Perspective
  • AG Capital: Fade to Famous

    | | Commodity Trading Advisor, Gold

    There’s something about being quoted in the Wall Street Journal or making it onto Bloomberg TV that often leads to terribly inaccurate judgement calls (at least in the short-term). A classic example of this is Ray Dalio’s famous interview from Davos in early 2018, where he declared that “If you’re holding cash, you’re going to feel pretty stupid” just before the market cratered -12% and potentially may have begun a topping process for the entire bull market run from 2009 … Read more AG Capital: Fade to Famous
  • Adalpha Asset Management – Seeking Volatility

    | | Commodity Trading Advisor, Fed

    “What just happened?” is becoming an all too common phrase for market watchers over the past few weeks.  Whether it be the Fed Chairman giving a talk, interest rate behavior, or a short tweet from the President, markets have been responding aggressively.  Over long periods of time all of these things could often be put on the category of “noise” but in the meantime anyone watching their portfolio can get an ulcer.  … Read more Adalpha Asset Management – Seeking Volatility
  • Coloma Capital – Trade War Tempest or Just a Squall?

    | | Commodity Trading Advisor, Fundamental, Futures

    Trade War Tempest or Just a Squall?  As the July 31st Fed interest rate cut was quickly overrun by the trade war tit-for-tat, we need to gain some perspective on expected impact of the US/China interaction in early August without the hype too often seen in the media.  On August 1st, Trump stated that he intends to place a 10% tariff on the remaining $300 billion-ish in Chinese exports to the US as of September 1st.  The prior statements were a 25% tariff (notably higher) and at an indeterminate date (easily ignored by the markets).  A lower tariff that can possibly be fully absorbed by Chinese firms may ruffle some feathers but would not be a crisis.  The Chinese response of cancelling nebulously-defined agricultural sales (note that pork shipments are full speed ahead, despite the existing Chinese tariff) would be partially matched off with lower US grain production from the poor spring weather.  There are also some reports that the Chinese tempered their Brazilian soy purchases which implied intrinsically lower Chinese grain demand.  In other words, this first response was justification for something they wanted to do anyway.  … Read more Coloma Capital – Trade War Tempest or Just a Squall?
  • Managing Money: It’s basically all noise, with a few exceptions

    | | Commodity Trading Advisor, Fed, Trump

    Noise and an overwhelming amount of data is the biggest challenge in managing money in 2019 (or anytime in the past decade). In the 1960s, 1970s, and even the 1980s, delivering alpha came down to having access to information others didn’t have – the process of obtaining data was a value-add. Today, we have the complete opposite problem. In 2019 we have too much information, and delivering alpha comes down to paring things back to their essence, stripping away unnecessary garbage … Read more Managing Money: It’s basically all noise, with a few exceptions