Category: Commodity Trading Advisor

  • Cayler Capital | April Performance Commentary

    | | Commodities, Commodity Trading Advisor, Decision-Making, Managed Futures, Performance

    After finishing off one of the wildest quarters of my trading career, April managed to take the cake.  For those that missed it (not sure how you possibly could have), oil settled negative $37.  The effects of this were immediate: risk barometers had to be recalculated, option models switched, and most importantly was the immediate shock felt as oil producers halted production.  This massive negative price sets the stage for a return to normalcy and bullishness in the energy space: storage has been filled, production has been cut and we are now forecasting stock draws throughout the second half of … Read more Cayler Capital | April Performance Commentary
  • Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs) in Perspective

    | | Commodity Trading Advisor

    The following is a guest post from Spring Valley Asset Management: Disclaimer: While an investment in managed futures can help enhance returns and reduce risk, it can also do just the opposite and in fact result in further losses in a portfolio. In addition, studies conducted of managed futures as a whole may not be indicative of the performance of any individual CTA. The results of studies conducted in the past may not be indicative of current time periods.   Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs) are a class of hedge funds that trade primarily in liquid global futures markets. These include currencies, … Read more Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs) in Perspective
  • AG Capital: Fade to Famous

    | | Commodity Trading Advisor, Gold

    There’s something about being quoted in the Wall Street Journal or making it onto Bloomberg TV that often leads to terribly inaccurate judgement calls (at least in the short-term). A classic example of this is Ray Dalio’s famous interview from Davos in early 2018, where he declared that “If you’re holding cash, you’re going to feel pretty stupid” just before the market cratered -12% and potentially may have begun a topping process for the entire bull market run from 2009 … Read more AG Capital: Fade to Famous
  • Adalpha Asset Management – Seeking Volatility

    | | Commodity Trading Advisor, Fed

    “What just happened?” is becoming an all too common phrase for market watchers over the past few weeks.  Whether it be the Fed Chairman giving a talk, interest rate behavior, or a short tweet from the President, markets have been responding aggressively.  Over long periods of time all of these things could often be put on the category of “noise” but in the meantime anyone watching their portfolio can get an ulcer.  … Read more Adalpha Asset Management – Seeking Volatility
  • Coloma Capital – Trade War Tempest or Just a Squall?

    | | Commodity Trading Advisor, Fundamental, Futures

    Trade War Tempest or Just a Squall?  As the July 31st Fed interest rate cut was quickly overrun by the trade war tit-for-tat, we need to gain some perspective on expected impact of the US/China interaction in early August without the hype too often seen in the media.  On August 1st, Trump stated that he intends to place a 10% tariff on the remaining $300 billion-ish in Chinese exports to the US as of September 1st.  The prior statements were a 25% tariff (notably higher) and at an indeterminate date (easily ignored by the markets).  A lower tariff that can possibly be fully absorbed by Chinese firms may ruffle some feathers but would not be a crisis.  The Chinese response of cancelling nebulously-defined agricultural sales (note that pork shipments are full speed ahead, despite the existing Chinese tariff) would be partially matched off with lower US grain production from the poor spring weather.  There are also some reports that the Chinese tempered their Brazilian soy purchases which implied intrinsically lower Chinese grain demand.  In other words, this first response was justification for something they wanted to do anyway.  … Read more Coloma Capital – Trade War Tempest or Just a Squall?