Category: Crude Oil

  • Oil Flood – Case for $15 Oil

    | | Commodities, Crude Oil

    Cayler Capital Logo
    Guest post by Brent Belote of Cayler Capital Russia broke the oil market!  Russia and the Saudis have entered into a dangerous game of chicken with each other.  Russia is determined to punish US Oil Producers while the Saudis are attempting to force OPEC+ back in line. To simplify, Russia would not comply with OPEC+ to extend cuts and possibly deepen them, so in retaliation, the Saudis lowered its official selling price (OSP).  This OSP affects about 14 million barrels per day (mb/d) for various oil grades and locations.  See below chart for an idea of just how monumental and … Read more Oil Flood – Case for $15 Oil
  • Managed Futures – Futures Trends

    | | Agriculture, Commodities, Commodity Trading Advisor, Crude Oil, Grains, Livestock, Managed Futures, Volatility

    We know it is early as CTAs are still computing their monthly returns for May. With some early reports and our own proprietary tool Insight, we are seeing gains of >1% for the month of May. With continued downtrend in VIX (at or below 14) many managers trading indexes have been steady but under performing the overall broader S&P 500 index. Whereas managers trading commodities, such as coffee, cocoa, corn, soybeans, wheat, crude…just to name a few have seen a completely different story. Our interpretation is we will see a continued trend in volatility with respect to commodities and continued uptrend in equity indexes (past performance not indicative of future results). That being said, this upward trend in the indexes is going to pull back one of these days. The duration and extent are anyone’s guess. Now is the time to be more aware of “too much of a good thing”. The strength of this bull market for indexes has lasted quite some time … Read more Managed Futures – Futures Trends
  • Why call them Commodity Trading Advisors?

    | | Agriculture, Commodity Trading Advisor, Crude Oil, CTA, Energy, Financial Futures, Grains, Indexes, Livestock, Managed Futures, softs

    Commodity Trading Advisors, or CTAs, as they are commonly referred to have long been pigeon holed in the Managed Futures industry as professional money managers that trade commodities. Most people liken them to what they see in the movies. The reputation is that these are free wielding traders that have unlimited risk appetite in search of making a fortune. It may be true that speculative commodity traders that are depicted in the movies seek out returns that perhaps a novice or capital preserving investor would never be able to stomach, but most professional money managers trading in Managed Futures are seeking a risk/reward profile that appeal to a broader investing community … Read more Why call them Commodity Trading Advisors?
  • Protec Energy Partners LLC – Q2 Crude Oil Market Outlook

    | | Commodity Trading Advisor, Crude Oil, Energy, Managed Futures

    Our methodology combines technical and fundamental assessment of the oil market and then utilize the appropriate trading structure that best fits the market scenario. While we are not “trend followers” per se, we do attempt to profit from directional price movement based on perceived imbalances in supply and demand in the oil complex. However, the pitfalls are two-fold: 1) that markets may not always follow fundamentals. We believe that prices will always revert to levels dictated by fundamentals but realize that index-investors and system-directed trading may dominate pricing during certain periods. 2) Volatility and market compression limits our ability to exploit those potential, directional profit opportunities. The following is an overview of the supply/demand fundamentals and our second quarter price forecast for crude oil, gasoline and diesel fuel … Read more Protec Energy Partners LLC – Q2 Crude Oil Market Outlook