Category: Economics

  • Inflation Coming?

    | | Economics

    Want to play a “fun” game?  Simply go to Google and type “currency crisis (insert any country name)” and see your results.  Luckily for Americans, you will find that the United States is one of the few countries that seems to have avoided this designation so far.  As one of my Polish friends who immigrated asked me though, “Why do people think it can’t happen here?”  After all, as he was growing up, cigarettes went from $0.50 a pack on Monday to a dollar by Wednesday and two dollars by the weekend.  “Of course it can happen here.  It happens … Read more Inflation Coming?
  • Behavioral economics – Is an atheoretical approach harmful?

    | | Economics

    Behavioral economics research has been path breaking and has truly impacted the thinking of most investors. Psychology is fundamental to human decision-making and our knowledge and understanding of economic agents has been enhanced through the large body of research in this area. Through finding exceptions and breaking down conventional utility maximization theory and wisdom, behavioral economic has advanced science, yet this work is not completely fulfilling. Our knowledge is filled with behavioral exceptions and leaves us with the impression that our decision-making skills are psychological damaged, but there is no unifying framework for how the range of biases fits within utility maximization, consumer behavior, market efficiency, and general decision-making. … Read more Behavioral economics – Is an atheoretical approach harmful?
  • Alan Krueger and the Tough Problem of Happiness

    | | Economics

    Everyone who has taken a course in economics is aware of utility theory and the desire to have more “utils”. Those with a historical focus will recall the deep discussions of early 19th century economist, “utilitarians” and the dismal science. The concept of measuring and auditing happiness has resurged in economic research, but it has been a perplexing problem. The basic idea with both economics and finance is that money can buy you happiness, but the reality is more complex … Read more Alan Krueger and the Tough Problem of Happiness
  • When Inflation Moves Higher – What To Expect With The Stock-Bond Correlation

    | | Economics

    The single largest diversification play for investors over the last two decades has been the strong negative correlation between stock and bonds. There are portfolio managers and investment analysts who have spent their entire career under the negative stock-bond correlation advantage, yet times change. Finance’s greatest “free lunch” is not a one-sided bet. Older managers can impress young analysts even in their forties of old tales of “back in the day” when stocks and bonds moved together. Some may argue that elders who talk of this should be retired and just let the new guys run things, but investors should discuss and prepare for alternative equity/bond environments.  … Read more When Inflation Moves Higher – What To Expect With The Stock-Bond Correlation