Category: Economy

  • Call me a Pessimist

    | | Economy

    All investors know the adage to “buy high and sell low” but few adhere to it.  We can see this with record volume to start July trading coming mostly from retail investors as the S&P reaches another all time high.  Perhaps I have been in the futures industry too long because when things are “too good” I get concerned.  Oftentimes I am right though, even for accidental reasons.   Oddly, the current period looks pretty similar to a time of recent memory.  Coming into February of 2020 the economy was on fire with record low unemployment, a rising stock market, and … Read more Call me a Pessimist
  • Concentration, inequality and the status quo – Size matters but not always for the better

    | | Economy, Politics

    A capitalist system is not always competitive environment, but competitive environment is a capitalist system. One key macro issue that is not often discussed is the increasing concentration of businesses in the US and other capitalist countries. While not monopolies, an increasing amount of market share is in the hands of fewer companies and form oligopolies.  … Read more Concentration, inequality and the status quo – Size matters but not always for the better
  • Was August the Calm Before the Storm?

    | | Economy, Investment Strategies

    Historically the summer markets coincide with tight ranges and low volume. Trends seem to dry up, markets trade in tight ranges and short term opportunities can be rare. For instance, the past 30 day range in the SP 500 has been the tightest range seen since 1995. That particular market led to a 180% rally in the stock market over the next four years. However today’s market has its own unique headwinds including rate hike decisions that are eagerly awaited, dissected, and then obsessed over, as well as a very unique presidential election around the corner. Whether it breaks up or down matters little to me … Read more Was August the Calm Before the Storm?
  • Bank of Japan Surprise Move

    | | Economy

    Thoughts on today’s Bank of Japan action and Global Equity Markets The Bank of Japan surprised markets overnight by becoming the most recent central bank to move rates into negative territory, albeit only on new excess reserves created by additional QE, and this time with a razor thin 5-4 vote. This comes on the heels of continued weak economic data, and again (their 3rd time in a year) they postponed the deadline for achieving their 2% inflation target an additional 6 months to early 2017. The Yen weakened dramatically (~2%) overnight as the market was surprised by this seemingly aggressive action in light of recent commentary that additional easing wasn’t necessary. … Read more Bank of Japan Surprise Move
  • Nothing New From The Fed

    | | Economy

    The myriad of bad economic news throughout the first quarter was punctuated today by the Commerce Department report that reported U.S. gross domestic product barely grew, only rising at a 0.2 percent annualized pace in the first three months of 2015.  As usual Federal Reserve officials sounded upbeat in their statement today, and as expected there was no sign that they intend to … Read more Nothing New From The Fed