Category: Grains

  • Why call them Commodity Trading Advisors?

    | | Agriculture, Commodity Trading Advisor, Crude Oil, CTA, Energy, Financial Futures, Grains, Indexes, Livestock, Managed Futures, softs

    Commodity Trading Advisors, or CTAs, as they are commonly referred to have long been pigeon holed in the Managed Futures industry as professional money managers that trade commodities. Most people liken them to what they see in the movies. The reputation is that these are free wielding traders that have unlimited risk appetite in search of making a fortune. It may be true that speculative commodity traders that are depicted in the movies seek out returns that perhaps a novice or capital preserving investor would never be able to stomach, but most professional money managers trading in Managed Futures are seeking a risk/reward profile that appeal to a broader investing community … Read more Why call them Commodity Trading Advisors?
  • Bocken Trading – March 2014 Update and Outlook

    | | Agriculture, Commodity Trading Advisor, CTA, Grains

    Everything but soyoil rallied in March with wheat the upside leader. Funds covered shorts and got long wheat on US production risks and added risk premium for Ukraine/Russia tensions. Corn was supported on strong export demand and extremely strong ethanol margins. The same themes continued to support beans and meal – we have oversold our supply and need to ration for the remainder of the crop year. Oil made new highs early in the month in sympathy with strength in beans and on dryness in Southeast Asian palm production areas but sold off as rains materialized … Read more Bocken Trading – March 2014 Update and Outlook
  • Grain Outlook from CTA: Kottke Commodities

    | | Agriculture, Commodity Trading Advisor, CTA, Grains

    Simultaneous, intense logistical snarls in both ocean-going shipments and North American rail transportation made for divergence between cash grain values and underlying futures contracts during the month. Part of what we do is forecasting how futures will act to realign regional imbalances, but this proved largely impossible as “uneconomic” dislocations abounded as never before: Cancellation of excess soybean purchases by China occurred at such an awkward time that U.S. was simultaneously loading soybeans and soymeal for export, and offloading imports of the same commodities from South America. This left the managers with insufficient understanding of whether U.S. supplies were growing … Read more Grain Outlook from CTA: Kottke Commodities
  • IASG March CTA Indexes

    | | Commodity Trading Advisor, CTA, Grains, Indexes, Livestock, Managed Futures, Options

    Overall the IASG CTA Index was down 90 BPS for March with 71% of managers posting their returns a/o this posting. This was a particularly difficult month with the Volatility VIX index reducing dramatically in early March only to recover and spike quickly which presented an opportunity for the stock index and options CTAs. Agriculture was also an area of focus with grains primarily staying flat and end of month spiking after USDA reports indicated larger supply than was predicted along with unstable conditions in Ukraine causing corn prices to rally end of month. Finally Livestock prices achieved all time high prices as a virus continues to take its toll in decimating hogs. There were some managers that were able to exploit these markets and others who struggled. Trend Following continues to struggle in these market conditions with the first quarter showing a -1.25% loss … Read more IASG March CTA Indexes