Category: Livestock

  • Cattle: Futures Commentary

    | | Agriculture, Commodity Trading Advisor, CTA, Feeder Cattle, Grains, Live Cattle, Livestock

    Bulls had something to cheer about to finish off last week’s trading in the Cattle markets, after Thursday’s limit higher move followed by a $2-3 rally on Friday. However, somewhat of a letdown was the Friday afternoon USDA news, with the choice beef cutout coming in off $3.02 and the monthly COF (Cattle on Feed) report acknowledging larger supplies than were expected.  To sum things up March cattle placements were higher by 0.4% vs. last year, 5% above expectations, leaving the April 1 on feed total unchanged vs. last year, which was also more than anticipated … Read more Cattle: Futures Commentary
  • USDA Agriculture Grain Stock Report Analysis

    | | Agriculture, bull market, Commodity Trading Advisor, CTA, Grains, Live Cattle, Livestock

    Early 20th century British economist John Keynes famously stated “the market can remain irrational longer than you can stay solvent.” Lately, the agricultural markets have been defying logic and testing the solvency of many. A variety of market forces have been driving the meat and grain markets. With some key USDA reports closing up the first half of the trading year, the markets are celebrating the upcoming holiday with some fireworks of their own … Read more USDA Agriculture Grain Stock Report Analysis
  • Kottke : A World Hungry For Meat

    | | Agriculture, Commodity Trading Advisor, CTA, Grains, Livestock, Managed Futures, Soybean Meal, Soybean Oil

    After three consecutive quarters of much-greater-than-expected demand for U.S. corn and soybeans, confounding every analyst’s projections and strengthening current-year prices sharply, a turn to excellent planting and growing weather in Northern Hemisphere abruptly collapsed forward prices for corn, wheat, and to a lesser extent soybeans. We confess bewilderment as to why, with world demand this year so vastly larger than expected, forward price should not be well-supported by demand continuing on this surprisingly steep trajectory … Read more Kottke : A World Hungry For Meat
  • Rosetta Capital – Conventional Wisdom

    | | Agriculture, Commodity Trading Advisor, CTA, Grains, Livestock, Managed Futures

    At the turn of the year the “consensus” was that corn was going lower, Bond prices were going lower (yields Higher) and the meats were going irregularly higher. Five + months into 2014, the bonds have rallied over 10 points and the funds have gone from being short 230,000 contracts of corn to being long 340,000+ contracts as of the beginning of May It took them over a dollar in price rally to get there but here we are! Now they are long, I think at an interim or possible top of the price action? Subsequent action since the May 9th report only reinforces my perception of that. What lies ahead is a chasm of time and future price discovery … Read more Rosetta Capital – Conventional Wisdom
  • Managed Futures – Futures Trends

    | | Agriculture, Commodities, Commodity Trading Advisor, Crude Oil, Grains, Livestock, Managed Futures, Volatility

    We know it is early as CTAs are still computing their monthly returns for May. With some early reports and our own proprietary tool Insight, we are seeing gains of >1% for the month of May. With continued downtrend in VIX (at or below 14) many managers trading indexes have been steady but under performing the overall broader S&P 500 index. Whereas managers trading commodities, such as coffee, cocoa, corn, soybeans, wheat, crude…just to name a few have seen a completely different story. Our interpretation is we will see a continued trend in volatility with respect to commodities and continued uptrend in equity indexes (past performance not indicative of future results). That being said, this upward trend in the indexes is going to pull back one of these days. The duration and extent are anyone’s guess. Now is the time to be more aware of “too much of a good thing”. The strength of this bull market for indexes has lasted quite some time … Read more Managed Futures – Futures Trends