Category: RMG Wealth

  • Looking for a Turn in Both Government Bonds and the Japanese Yen

    | | emerging manager, RMG Wealth

    In quite a few ways, recent weeks have been anything but boring. Trying to filter out important events from random noise in markets today feels like a bit of a mugs game, but that shouldn’t stop us from trying if we think that we can add some value to our investors. We would like to pick up on a couple of areas that are gaining our attention, and we’re certainly not alone, so here goes with our version of events … Read more Looking for a Turn in Both Government Bonds and the Japanese Yen
  • The Failures of Central Banking

    | | Central Bank, CTA, Education, Federal Reserve, RMG Wealth

    We have been meaning to write an in depth report on central bank policies for some time and the market responses to recent BoJ policy decisions as well as the Fed meeting and press conference this week have nudged us to make a start. Below are some initial thoughts on how good central banks are in their forecasts and where they may take us in the future. We don’t mean this to be a rant, but it’s hard to discuss central banking politely when they have been so ineffective, when they refuse to accept they have been incorrect and they refuse to fully acknowledge the full unintended consequences of their hugely experimental policies … Read more The Failures of Central Banking
  • Another European Summer of Discontent

    | | ECB, Education, RMG Wealth

    The most obvious and immediate European problem is the UK’s Brexit vote on 23rd June, and momentum has clearly swung away from the remain camp in the last two weeks. What was seen as only a minor risk for financial markets has quickly become a huge potential risk and prices have begun to adjust. In our opinion, this is not just an issue of migration but a problem of the average man on the street simply does not feel that their lives have improved materially since the Global Financial Crisis. There are a huge number of voters who feel completely disaffected and simply want change. This is not an issue unique to the UK. Huge numbers across Europe and the US are in the same boat and the risk of a series of anti-establishment votes in the next year or so is growing … Read more Another European Summer of Discontent
  • Life Just Became a Lot More Difficult for the Data Dependent Fed

    | | Education, Federal Reserve, RMG Wealth

    After a truly disappointing US employment report, the market has priced out any rate hike in coming months, with only slightly more than a 50% probability of one rate rise by year end. In our opinion, Janet Yellen has always been a lot more dovish than a number of her colleagues and will not want to raise rates now. So, either the Fed ignores the poor US employment report (and the continuing weakness in the manufacturing sector and corporate profitability) and raise rates anyway, thereby risking upsetting the financial markets. Or, they shift back to a more dovish narrative, risking their credibility … Read more Life Just Became a Lot More Difficult for the Data Dependent Fed
  • Markets Have to Adjust as Fed Alters Course

    | | Education, Federal Reserve, reflation, RMG Wealth

    The Fed’s normalisation process has been a tortuous on/off affair primarily because their focus has been almost entirely on not upsetting the financial markets rather than doing the right thing for the long term health of the US economy. This week, the Federal Reserve machine cranked into action to persuade markets that they want to raise rates before the Summer and again before year end. So far, the reaction has been quite muted, but it is far from certain that this calm veneer will continue. Let’s dive in and think about what the Fed are doing and what this means for markets … Read more Markets Have to Adjust as Fed Alters Course