• Inflation Coming?

    | | Economics

    Want to play a “fun” game?  Simply go to Google and type “currency crisis (insert any country name)” and see your results.  Luckily for Americans, you will find that the United States is one of the few countries that seems to have avoided this designation so far.  As one of my Polish friends who immigrated asked me though, “Why do people think it can’t happen here?”  After all, as he was growing up, cigarettes went from $0.50 a pack on Monday to a dollar by Wednesday and two dollars by the weekend.  “Of course it can happen here.  It happens … Read more Inflation Coming?
  • Q1 Agricultural Market Commentary

    | | Agriculture

    Guest post by Malinda Goldsmith of Four Seasons Commodities Agricultural markets have completed monstrous seven-year bear moves for good reason. Consider that we’ve had four years in a row of record or near-record crops, generally benign growing seasons in North America, ever-larger crops in South America, a strong dollar and a trade war which focused on agricultural products. End-users around the world became accustomed to buying “hand-to-mouth” for good reason – big crops, low prices – no need to go to the store and stock up in a world of surplus. Suddenly, the trade war was over and a black … Read more Q1 Agricultural Market Commentary
  • Why Traditional Hedges Suck!

    | | Strategy

    An article by Scot Billington, Covenant Capital Management Unfortunately, most traditional hedges suck. Buy and hold investing has been wildly successful since 1982; however, its adherents have had to endure two 50% drawdowns; a 25% down day; and a 14-year period of zero return.  Long term wealth is significantly impacted by drawdowns of more than 25%, because the necessary recovery rally follows an exponential curve. Let’s take a look at what’s needed for recovery:  A 30% decline requires a 43% rally to get back to even.  A 40% decline requires 67%; down 50% requires +100; and down 60% requires a … Read more Why Traditional Hedges Suck!
  • March 2021 Flash Report

    | | Flash Report, Futures

    March was another positive move for equity markets with indexes showing solid returns. CTAs held their own with overall a positive month across many of the strategies we track.  Some of the trends outside of equities saw choppiness in grain and agriculture markets and trends emerged in short bonds. The USD showed strength from its end of February low versus other major currencies. Equity markets remain at all time high levels as volatility in the indexes has dropped significantly below 20 for the first time in over a year. Most indexes were positive with the Stock Index Trader Index leading for … Read more March 2021 Flash Report
  • Futures Contracts are Easy. You are Already Using Them.

    | | Futures

    I have spent over a decade in the futures industry so I am accustomed to the blank stare when I tell people what I do. Most immediately assume it is too complicated to even try to understand.  The ironic thing is that we all intuitively understand them already. We trade them all the time. We can look at many examples of a futures decision; pre-ordering a book on Amazon, waiting to buy something until it goes on sale, or my favorite example the airplane ticket.  Purchasing a seat for a trip has all the characteristics of a futures contract; a … Read more Futures Contracts are Easy. You are Already Using Them.