• Everyone Loves a Comeback

    | | Spotlight

    In February 2018, markets looked pretty dire for many option writers. The VIX had spiked 250% in less than a week and options sold a few days before were selling for many multiples of their original value. The biggest firm in the space, LJM Partners, went under and some of the best names faltered. Tianyou reduced risk as any good manager should but not in time to stave off a 25.46% drawdown, the worst in their history. Most of their customers stuck with the program and by the end of the year they were down just 4% and now are … Read more Everyone Loves a Comeback
  • NuWave Investment Management – Politics & Markets

    | | Politics

    While only time will tell if the potential impeachment of President Donald Trump is more sideshow than substance, the fallout from the impeachment inquiry and any subsequent hearings will likely pale in comparison to the potential ill effects of a destabilizing escalation in the trade war with China, an unanticipated surge in U.S. inflation data (which would, in turn, force the Federal Reserve to tighten rates in an aggressive fashion) or a continuation of the profligate spending policies of a spendthrift Congress. Ultimately, markets either rise or fall based upon the underlying health of the economy – not the political drama being staged in some Congressional hearing on Capitol Hill – and it is likely that the economic policies pursued by the Trump Administration (e.g., tax cuts, jobs growth, fair trade, rising corporate earnings, deregulation, etc.) have made the U.S. economy – and the U.S. stock market – more resilient to all manner of near-term shocks . . . even political ones … Read more NuWave Investment Management – Politics & Markets
  • Warrington – The return of Volatility

    | | Yield Curve

    Volatility returned to the S&P in August. While multiple sources were responsible, the most obvious catalyst was the escalation of the trade war with China.  Just one day after the Federal Reserve indicated that U.S. monetary policy would be responsive to further trade war skirmishes, President Trump provided justification for further policy easing when he tweeted to invoke additional Chinese tariffs.  Later in the month the Chinese retaliated, and Trump responded with more tariffs.  The net result of these actions, which also caused a huge rally in bond markets, was a dramatic increase in market volatility.  The S&P rallied or declined by 1% or more on eleven separate days in August, the most in one month since February 2018, and the index had three separate days with declines over 2.5%, the most in nearly eight years … Read more Warrington – The return of Volatility
  • AG Capital: Fade to Famous

    | | Commodity Trading Advisor, Gold

    There’s something about being quoted in the Wall Street Journal or making it onto Bloomberg TV that often leads to terribly inaccurate judgement calls (at least in the short-term). A classic example of this is Ray Dalio’s famous interview from Davos in early 2018, where he declared that “If you’re holding cash, you’re going to feel pretty stupid” just before the market cratered -12% and potentially may have begun a topping process for the entire bull market run from 2009 … Read more AG Capital: Fade to Famous