We consider grains to be one of the most exciting markets for this year, an increase in the U.S. grain export will support prices, but only if the U.S. dollar stabilizes or declines. Corn and Wheat seem to be at a discount from their previous years’ price average; a definitive US-China trade deal could impact grains to have sharp moves in the year. We also anticipate an inflow of institutional money into grains that will move futures prices of different expiration. This is an optimal environment for our trading program.
This summer’s theme could well have been: How low can they go? The “they” was supply and demand. Unfortunately, the competition looked more like a cage match than a limbo contest. In that analogy the heavyweight match was certainly Prevent Plant (PP) versus African Swine Fever (ASF).
Here is a list that I’ve developed for Individual investors to know the answers to or ask before investing their risk capital with a Commodity Trading Advisor or Professional Money Manager. This checklist is ever evolving as new information comes to light or the dynamics change in the market place. Our hope in providing this […]
In order to fully get the “error” in selling grain at harvest and then buying calls to replace that grain, so as to still participate in possible higher prices you need to understand how carrying charges work in the grain markets. The definition of “carrying charges” is: an expense or effective cost arising from unproductive […]
When you trade the markets, you don’t know the exact probability of winning or losing on a given trade. You won’t know how much you will profit or lose. A CTA does extensive historical testing on their concepts and trading strategies to understand what to expect. They will also pull huge data samples of market […]
A futures or commodity market is a “locked limit” when trading is suspended due to prices moving the exchange-stipulated daily limit. This can happen for one day (it can even lock-limit and then trade-off), or if given a news event monumental, the market may stay “locked” for as many days as needed for market participants […]
CNBC is running out of credible, bullish analysts on the oil complex. The calls for $65+ WTI seem relatively sparse. Is anybody in their right mind still thinking crude oil is going higher? Of course. We all know Keynes’ saying, “The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.” But seriously, how much […]
When a CTA or Money Manager is testing or back-testing their entry signals, one of the most important aspects they look at is if the technique’s they are using have a distinct “edge” for the time frame they are trading (short-term, swing, long-term, etc.). Positive price movement is when the market goes in the direction […]
Success in trading is measured in terms of the growth of the account balance. A CTA is not expected to play God and call every twist and turn in the market correctly at all times. As a matter of fact, some professional and proven CTA’s systems are only correct 25-30% of the time and they […]
Written by: Bryen Deutsch The time has come for natural gas traders to refocus on US weather outlooks. June 1st marks the official start of hurricane season. While we did see an early season storm on the Atlantic seaboard a few weeks ago, the bulk of cyclone activity occurs during the next 6 months. The […]
Most professional CTA’s look and think about trading in a much different way than an average trader or investor would, and the reason for this is not hard to understand. If a CTA is successful what it means to me is that they have dedicated their lives to the craft. Every trader wants to be […]
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