Tag: corn

  • Managed Futures – Futures Trends

    | | Agriculture, Commodities, Commodity Trading Advisor, Crude Oil, Grains, Livestock, Managed Futures, Volatility

    We know it is early as CTAs are still computing their monthly returns for May. With some early reports and our own proprietary tool Insight, we are seeing gains of >1% for the month of May. With continued downtrend in VIX (at or below 14) many managers trading indexes have been steady but under performing the overall broader S&P 500 index. Whereas managers trading commodities, such as coffee, cocoa, corn, soybeans, wheat, crude…just to name a few have seen a completely different story. Our interpretation is we will see a continued trend in volatility with respect to commodities and continued uptrend in equity indexes (past performance not indicative of future results). That being said, this upward trend in the indexes is going to pull back one of these days. The duration and extent are anyone’s guess. Now is the time to be more aware of “too much of a good thing”. The strength of this bull market for indexes has lasted quite some time … Read more Managed Futures – Futures Trends
  • CTA: Kottke Commodities Grain Market Commentary

    | | Agriculture, Commodity Trading Advisor, Grains, Livestock, Managed Futures, spread trading

    Slightly negative results for the month extend a run of near-flat returns as most of the main economic themes identified by the managers showed little reaction. The position in which we had substantially expanded our risk and volume was held as long as possible, until late on “last position day” prior to physical delivery, and still did not bear fruit. Our policy is to not hold overnight positions during the delivery period so as not to expose investors to large, albeit temporary, margin calls.Our “bullspread” strategy in corn – i.e., long nearby and short deferred – was based on projection that U.S. producers would tend to market supply slowly since they had already taken much income from selling soybeans and would wait rather than liquidate all 2013-14 production within a narrow timeframe. Our forecast of demand for U.S. corn was aggressive, as Argentine farmers held back supply for financial reasons and Brazil deemphasized exports to make sure it met soybean commitments … Read more CTA: Kottke Commodities Grain Market Commentary
  • Grains week in Review – Bocken Trading

    | | Agriculture, Commodity Trading Advisor, Grains

    Quite a whippy week. Beans and wheat broke hard earlier in the week. Wheat broke on wetter forecasts and beans broke on all the distressed China cargos and import talk. Funds liquidated flat price beans and exited spreads. There was major unwinding going on. As the week wore on, there were more and more reports of wheat being ripped up (both HRW and SRW) as well as escalating tensions between Ukraine and Russia which provided support. Both US and Brazilian bean basis firmed, we continue to see positive bean and meal sales weeks, and crush margins remain strong – all providing support to old crop beans … Read more Grains week in Review – Bocken Trading