Tag: Richard Thaler
Go Back to Basics with the Efficient Market Hypothesis – Think of it as a Base or Prior
The Efficient Market Hypothesis… has two components that I like to refer to with the terms No Free Lunch and The Price Is Right. The No Free Lunch component says that it is impossible to predict future stock prices and earn excess returns except by bearing more risk. The Price Is Right component says that asset prices are equal to their “intrinsic value,” somehow defined.
– Richard Thaler, “From Cashews to Nudges:The Evolution of Behavioral Economics”, American Economic Review 2018
Richard Thaler – Nobel Prize Winner – The Economist Who Provides a Foundation for Rules-Based Managed Futures
We congratulate Richard Thaler on winning this year’s Nobel Prize in Economics. His relentless research on the failings of rational behavior in human decision-making has had a significant impact in finance and economics. His prolific work is the foundation for all of what we call behavioral economic and finance. Prior to Thaler, economist focused on Homo Economicus, the rational man that does not make mistakes or misjudgments. Thaler showed through test after test that we make mistakes and have biases. He did this albeit radical work not as an outsider to finance like Dan Kahneman but as a economist steeped in the neoclassical tradition.