Tag: Trading Strategies
What are Carrying Charges and how do they influence hedging decisions?
In order to fully get the “error” in selling grain at harvest and then buying calls to replace that grain, so as to still participate in possible higher prices you need to understand how carrying charges work in the grain markets. The definition of “carrying charges” is: an expense or effective cost arising from unproductive […]
Bulls Being Lured in With Dropping Rig Counts
CNBC is running out of credible, bullish analysts on the oil complex. The calls for $65+ WTI seem relatively sparse. Is anybody in their right mind still thinking crude oil is going higher? Of course. We all know Keynes’ saying, “The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.” But seriously, how much […]
Measuring the Edge of Entry Signals in Trading
When a CTA or Money Manager is testing or back-testing their entry signals, one of the most important aspects they look at is if the technique’s they are using have a distinct “edge” for the time frame they are trading (short-term, swing, long-term, etc.). Positive price movement is when the market goes in the direction […]
Nat Gas: Summer Weather and Hurricane Season Begins
Written by: Bryen Deutsch The time has come for natural gas traders to refocus on US weather outlooks. June 1st marks the official start of hurricane season. While we did see an early season storm on the Atlantic seaboard a few weeks ago, the bulk of cyclone activity occurs during the next 6 months. The […]
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Start of Something Bigger in the S&P 500?
S&P Index futures fell by 1.11% today currently trading at 2105.50 lower by 19.00 points for the session, hitting a fresh 7 day low. The main talk amongst the trade were concerns about Greece and some positive economic data which again fueled expectations that a U.S. rate hike is coming sooner than later. How many times […]
Walmart Becomes Farm Friendly
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The Advantages of Professional Traders in the Futures Market
I know a lot about grains. In fact, I know much more than the average person about energies, metals, currencies, softs, and financials. I would never try to trade any of them for customers for a simple reason. I know others who have done nothing for most of their careers except focus on each area. […]
Corn Values Remain Stable after Report
Corn: (July Corn Futures) – Values managed to edge higher by ½ cent on today’s session, settling at $3.61 even after the USDA analysts chose not to upwardly adjust new crop yield estimates leaving them at 166.8 bu/acre. This is the second-highest yield now on the books, however, the trade may see this as a […]
How do you use Basis to Hedge?
Cash Price – Futures Price = Basis (at a specific point in time) A producer’s decision as to when and how to market their crops or livestock can have as significant an impact on their net bottom line profit as any production decision they may make throughout the year. Farmers today have more marketing alternatives […]
Overcoming Mental Blocks to Investing: Part 2
In my previous article, we reviewed the first seven of 13 “mental blocks” to investing an average CTA or investor may butt up against throughout trading or investing. To continue from where we ended off in the previous commentary, we will cover the final six biases and blocks that may affect how a CTA tests […]
Quiet Session in Soybeans. Calm Before the Storm?
A tranquil session today in the soybean market, with soymeal taking a backseat to oil. The nearby soybean spread May 15 vs. July 15 strengthened even with abundant total U.S. supplies in the picture. We have now seen Chinese imports lagging the year-ago pace for the last three consecutive months, with the cumulative seven-month import […]
Overcoming Mental Biases in Trading and Investing
Average CTA’s, investors, and people generally have an overwhelming desire to be “right.” Who likes to be wrong? You read and hear daily from friends, and fellow traders (spouses – J), how important it is to be correct, especially when they make a market prediction or, even worse when they put real money into a […]